Economic and social forecast for the sustainable forest garden DREVO

Economic and social forecast for the sustainable forest garden DREVO

1. General concept

The DREVO sustainable forest garden is a long-term production and ecological system in which trees, shrubs, grasses, mushrooms, animals, and humans form a single economic organism.

Unlike a traditional orchard or forest plantation, a forest garden doesn't rely on a single crop or product. Its economy is built on a combination of several areas:

edible nuts and seeds;

fruits, berries and medicinal plants;

animal feed base;

seedlings, rootstocks and grafted trees;

wood and non-wood forest products;

mushrooms, honey and processed products;

educational, tourist and social services;

restoration of soil, water and biodiversity.

The project's core economic principle is that the forest garden grows biologically more mature, resilient, and productive each year. Its primary value stems not only from the current harvest, but also from tree growth, soil restoration, water conservation, the creation of a genetic fund, and the development of a sustainable local economy.

2. Development horizon

3. Economic stages

Stage 1. System Creation – 0–3 years

The first stage of a forest garden requires the most investment. The main costs are related to land, design, water, roads, fencing, a nursery, planting material, and labor.

Main expenses

First income

During this period, the forest garden should not be evaluated solely by tree yield. The main result of the first years is the creation of a vibrant production infrastructure.

Stage 2. Formation of the economy – 3–7 years

At this stage, fast-growing fruit trees, shrubs, herbs, mushrooms and beekeeping begin to produce.

By the end of this period, a properly managed forest orchard can cover a significant portion of operating costs, although large trees will not yet reach full productivity.

Stage 3. Productive forest garden – 7–15 years

At this stage, the system begins to produce several parallel harvests.

At this stage, it's especially important not to sell all raw materials in their unprocessed form. The bulk of profit should gradually shift from selling the harvest to selling finished products.

Stage 4. Mature system – 15–30 years

In a mature forest garden, the cumulative effect begins to work.

Tree roots utilize water and minerals more deeply. Tree crowns create a microclimate. The soil accumulates organic matter. The need for watering, weeding, and plant protection is reduced. Product diversity increases.

4. Main sources of income

Food direction

Nursery direction

A nursery can generate income much earlier than mature trees. Therefore, it should be considered one of the project's central economic units.

Recycling

Services

5. Example of the income structure of a mature forest orchard

The share of each direction depends on the climate, area, market and level of processing.

The most sustainable system is one in which no single source provides more than half of the total income.

6. Dynamics of expenses

The forest garden does not become completely unmanaged. However, the nature of labor changes: instead of constantly fighting nature, people are now engaged in observation, selective tending, gathering, processing, and regulating relationships within the ecosystem.

7. Social forecast

Job creation

The forest garden creates more than just seasonal employment. With its nursery, workshop, processing, training, and tourism facilities, it can also create year-round jobs.

Main social groups

8. Social results

9. Cooperative model

A forest garden is especially sustainable if it is developed not as a single-owner enterprise, but as a cooperative system.

10. Ecological savings

Part of the economic value of the forest orchard is not reflected in regular revenues, but reduces future costs to society.

11. Main risks

12. Three development scenarios

Cautious scenario

Baseline scenario

Extended Scenario

13. Key Performance Indicators

Economic indicators

Social indicators

Environmental indicators

14. Expected long-term result

In 15–30 years, a sustainable forest garden can be transformed into a farm that simultaneously:

produces food;

provides a food supply;

grows planting material;

processes its own raw materials;

creates jobs;

teaches new generations;

preserves genetic diversity;

restores soil and water regime;

forms wood and natural capital;

reduces the community's dependence on external supplies.

The economic value of a mature forest orchard is determined by more than just annual profits. It includes the value of the land, trees, infrastructure, fertile soil, water reserves, brand name, knowledge, loyal customers, and a sustainable community.

Conclusion

A sustainable forest garden is not a quick-profit project, but a system for the gradual formation of natural, economic and social capital.

In the early years, the main economic activity is generated by the nursery, herbs, vegetables, berries, beekeeping, training, and services. In the mid-term, these are supplemented by fruits, nuts, mushrooms, and processing. In the long term, the main assets become mature trees, valuable seed lines, timber, restored soil, and the community formed around the project.

The main advantage of a forest garden is that its productivity doesn't exhaust the area, but rather, with proper management, increases its value. Each new layer, species, and generation of trees makes the system more resilient.

The sustainable forestry DREVO is an enterprise that grows not only food and trees, but also fertility, jobs, knowledge, trust, and the basis of life for future generations.